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5G is an extension of 4G, but unlike 4G, 5G is not a single wireless access technology, but a truly converged network. Compared with 3G/4G technology, 5G technology has a high transmission rate and large network capacity. , The time delay is short, which can increase the energy efficiency of the network by more than a hundred times, and truly open the era of the Internet of Everything. The IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group of my country has defined the main technical scenarios of 5G: continuous wide-area coverage, high-capacity hotspots, large connections with low power consumption, and low latency and high reliability. It is basically the same as the three scenarios defined by the International Telecommunication Union, except that my country further divides mobile broadband into two scenarios, wide-area coverage and hotspot high-speed.
2018 is a milestone year for the communications industry, and the overall industry is at a nodal moment of "three-phase superposition". On the one hand, the industry is on the eve of the transition from 4G to 5G, and the business model will transition from meeting people’s communication needs to enabling vertical industries and enterprises; on the other hand, 2018 is also a major inter-decade cycle of the communications industry and operator capital expenditures. The starting point of the cycle resonance, the capital expenditure of operators will bottom out in 2018. The communications industry, like other industries, also follows the rule of first upstream and then downstream, infrastructure first and then products and services. From the perspective of the tube-end-cloud architecture, the basic network goes first, the terminal follows, and the echelon development of applications and services again applies to 5G. In this process, the investment subject of the entire 5G industry chain has also changed accordingly, shifting from operators and consumers to vertical industries and corporate players. We believe that based on the 5G theme, there will be three waves of big investment opportunities in the communications industry in the future.
Three waves of investment under the theme of 5G
2018 will be the first year of 5G. Judging from the 5G promotion plans of various countries, 5G is expected to achieve network commercialization in 2020. As South Korea plans to take the lead in demonstrating 5G technology at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in February 2018, 2018 will be the first year of 5G moving from standardization to pre-commercialization.
Global 5G advancement
my country's 5G industry will usher in large-scale demand growth. It is estimated that by 2020, my country's base station scale alone will reach a market of 100 billion yuan, and the overall 5G industry market prospects are very broad. It is estimated that by 2030, 5G will drive a total direct output of 6.3 trillion yuan and a total indirect output of 10.6 trillion yuan. And with the further advancement of the commercialization process, the output structure of my country's 5G industry will also undergo a certain degree of transformation. Among them, the output of 5G information service providers will increase substantially in the future with the popularization of basic 5G facilities.
5G is approaching gradually, opening the door to a trillion-level market.
According to the "China 5G Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Industry Chain Investment Opportunity Analysis Report" released by the Foresight Industry Research Institute, starting from the official commercial use of 5G in 2020, it is expected to drive about 484 billion yuan in direct output and 1.2 trillion yuan in that year. The indirect output of RMB, the direct output and indirect output driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion and 10.6 trillion by 2030, respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 29% and 24% respectively. From the perspective of output structure, in the initial stage of 5G commercialization, the income of equipment manufacturers brought by network equipment investment will become the main source of direct economic output of 5G. 94% of total economic output.
5G future economic output (trillion yuan)
According to the data of the Foresight Industry Research Institute, it is estimated that from 2020 to 2030, the total network investment will reach 411 billion U.S. dollars, or about 2.8 trillion yuan, which is 3.5 times that of 4G networks. Wei Leping pointed out that in terms of operators’ acceptable costs, the total network investment is expected to be 180 billion US dollars from 2019 to 2025, or about 1.22 trillion yuan, which is 1.5 times the 4G network investment (about 117 billion US dollars). .
Investment opportunities brought about by changes in 5G technology
This article cited address: http://www.eepw.com.cn/article/201804/377895.htm
From this calculation, the total investment in my country's 5G network construction will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the industry's forecast of 1.22 trillion yuan. In addition, the gradual maturity and promotion of 5G technology will have a profound impact on the component structure of the downstream smart terminal RF front-end module (RFFEM). The RF front-end of smart phones is a personal consumer product with different driving attributes and separate statistics on the terminal market.
The advancement of 5G will greatly accelerate the penetration of in-vehicle connected terminals.
It is estimated that by 2022, the number of connected cars in the global market will reach 350 million units, with a market share of 24%, and the sales of new cars with network functions will reach 98 million units, with a market share of 94%. In China, according to the statistics of the Institute of Information and Communications Technology, as of August 2017, China Unicom’s number of connected vehicles exceeded 20 million, China Telecom had 11.06 million connected vehicles, and China Mobile had 27 million connected vehicles.
In addition, a total of 683 models of in-vehicle networking terminals in my country have obtained the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's network access certificate, of which 2G and 3G in-vehicle networking terminals are the main ones. 4G in-vehicle networking terminals have started to grow rapidly since 2016, and have rapidly increased from zero to 101 in more than a year. It is foreseeable that 4G and 5G-based in-vehicle networking terminals will continue to maintain a rapid development momentum in the next 3 to 4 years. At the same time, V2V communication equipment is also expected to leverage the popularization of V2X technology to substantially increase the installed capacity. In 2017, the global sales of V2V communication systems will reach 700,000 sets, and the number will increase to 5.6 million sets by 2020, and it is estimated to exceed 55 million sets by 2025.
In terms of policies, China has adopted 5G as a national strategy. In March 2017, 5G was officially included in the government work report. my country should follow 3G, 4G parallel to the 5G era to achieve full leadership; the "Thirteenth Five-Year" outline plan pointed out that it must be active Promote the development of 5G, and start 5G commercial use in 2020. The government supports the development of 5G, enterprises are accelerating research and development, and the global 5G commercialization has achieved a fierce competition. It is very likely that 5G commercialization will be fully implemented in mid-2019.
According to the latest news, Tianjin’s first 5G base station was opened at the Tianjin Open Laboratory of China Mobile’s 5G Joint Innovation Center.
Tianjin is the first batch of 5G application demonstration cities in the country. The opening of the first 5G base station marks a critical period for the establishment of 5G technology in Tianjin’s test environment and large-scale network construction.
According to reports, 5G base stations based on 5G advanced and new technologies such as multi-antenna Massive-MIMO, new coding LDPC/Polar, etc., have super-large bandwidth capabilities. The experience rate can reach 1Gbit/s, which is 100 times that of 4G, and the peak rate can reach 20Gbit/s. It is 20 times that of 4G. This means that under the 5G network environment, high-speed applications such as ultra-high-definition video live broadcast, VR (virtual reality)/AR (augmented reality), and naked-eye 3D will be realized.
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